After a couple of years where the housing market felt stuck in neutral, 2026 may be the year things shift back into gear. Expert forecasts show that more people are expected to move and that could open the door for you to do the same.
More Homes Will Sell
Over the past few years, many would-be movers hit pause due to rising rates and affordability challenges. But that pause button won’t last forever. Life events, job changes, and the need for more (or less) space always create movement.
Experts predict that more people will take action in 2026, leading to an increase in home sales (see graph below):
What’s driving the change? Two key factors: mortgage rates and home prices. Let’s take a closer look at both so you can see why more activity is expected in the year ahead.
Mortgage Rates Could Continue To Ease
For nearly every buyer, lower mortgage rates remain the top priority. After peaking near 7% earlier this year, rates have begun to ease, and experts forecast that trend will continue through 2026 (see graph below):
There’s an old saying: “When rates go up, they take the escalator. When they come down, they take the stairs.” That’s a good reminder, the path to lower rates won’t be perfectly smooth. Expect gradual improvement with a few bumps along the way as new economic data is released.
The latest projections suggest we could see rates in the low 6s or possibly even the high 5s by late 2026.
Even a modest drop in rates can make a real difference in affordability. Compared to when rates were at 7%, today’s slightly lower rates could already save buyers hundreds of dollars a month — a meaningful improvement for many San Diego home shoppers.
Home Price Growth Will Be Moderate
Now, let’s talk prices. National forecasts indicate that home values will continue to rise, though at a slower, more sustainable pace. With mortgage rates easing and more buyers re-entering the market, demand will increase, helping to stabilize prices and prevent a major decline.
While a few markets may see small price adjustments, the overall outlook remains positive. Thanks to significant appreciation over the past five years, even areas experiencing slight dips are still up compared to pre-pandemic levels.
Of course, price trends will vary by region. In San Diego County, where demand consistently outpaces supply, inventory levels will continue to play a major role in determining how prices move. Experts agree we’ll see steady, moderate appreciation nationwide (see graph below):
That’s a healthy sign for both buyers and sellers, giving everyone more predictability and confidence when planning their next move.
So, What does all of this mean?
After a quieter couple of years, 2026 is expected to bring renewed activity and opportunity. With more homes hitting the market, mortgage rates trending lower, and home price growth leveling out, the stage is set for a more balanced and dynamic real estate landscape.
So, the big question is... will you be one of the movers making 2026 your year?
If you’re thinking about buying or selling in San Diego, now’s the time to start planning. Let’s talk before you make any moves, I’ll help you create a strategy to take advantage of the opportunities ahead in 2026.
If you want to talk, have questions or need more information, Call or Text Sam Fakih at (858)255-1010
Broker Associate DRE# 01434767
COMPASS Real Estate, San Diego
